Stop Asking When Texas Will Turn Blue. Ask What Comes Next on Affordability

September 24, 2026

There’s a new rallying cry for Republicans in Texas: “Keep Texas, Texas.” Ted Cruz made this slogan the centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, in which he defeated Democrat Colin Allred. Inside this slogan, embraced by conservatives across Texas, is a presumption of continued conservative success and perhaps even domination. 

That assumption isn’t necessarily wrong. A Democrat hasn’t held statewide office since Ann Richards in 1994, and Trump won the state by a margin of 13.7 percentage points. For many across the United States, Texas has become a state synonymous with conservatism and right-wing populism. Many expect that hats with “Make America Great Again,” Bibles, and guns would probably be what the typical Texan carries around in their pockets. 

The binary language of “red state” and “blue state” becomes problematic because it blinds us to the state’s rich political traditions and nuanced response to contemporary problems. In the case of Texas, many seem to forget about the great progressive champions who hailed from the Lone Star state. 

Perhaps the most iconic and influential politician to come from Texas was the 36th president: Lyndon B. Johnson. Many know him for his escalation of the Vietnam War, others for his southern drawl and cattle ranch photoshoots. Regardless of opinion, LBJ’s legacy as a progressive hero was cemented by his administration’s Great Society program in which Medicare and Medicaid were expanded, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was legislated, and his War on Poverty took place. 

This tradition of progressive, populist politics is still alive and well in Texas. The Congressional Progressive Caucus, for example, is chaired by Greg Casar, a congressman from Austin. He also joins the likes of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Ilhan Omar as a member of “The Squad,” an informal group of progressive Democrats in Congress. 

Recent Senate races in Texas have created buzz for having progressive Democrat nominees, as seen by Beto O’Rourke garnering comparisons to Bernie Sanders during his 2018 Senate run. Perhaps most impressive was that Beto came so close to defeating Ted Cruz, only losing by less than 2 percentage points. Now, we see the newest Ddemocratic hopeful in James Talarico, who has created a reputation for combining economic populism, progressivism, and Christian faith and wrapping it with a blue ribbon for ballots across Texas this November.  

It seems like every election cycle includes the same question: will Texas turn blue? Given recent polling, it seems that what’s typically a safe Republican Senate seat has turned into a toss-up. The question we should be asking is: how will traditionally conservative states vote on affordability?

It is in these regions that were once primarily concerned with border security and abortion that affordability has now become the most important concern for voters. This shift doesn’t necessarily indicate that issues beyond affordability will become irrelevant in the future, though. It does tell us that binary perceptions of elections do little in revealing the future of American politics given the durability of affordability problems. Progressive Democrats are honing in on a message of economic populism, focusing on wage growth, child care, and wealth inequality. On the other end, conservative populists are pushing for tax reform and deregulation. 

The most important takeaway from Texas’ progressivism isn’t about waiting for red to turn blue or vice versa. It’s about seeing that underneath these maps made up of two colors are people who are constantly responding to different interpretations of urgent issues. If we want to understand the future of not only Texas, but also the United States, we need to keep asking ourselves what’s changing in the lives of the people who vote.

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