Since June of this year, only one prime minister and no presidents have been freely reelected. In eleven other free and fair elections, incumbents and their parties have lost reelection, failing to present their case to voters. In fact, in 2023 as a whole — by my own count — of 27 free and fair elections that have been held in countries with political parties, nineteen (70%) have been won by the opposition.*
That’s an enormous number, and one that means something: the people are upset with the way their countries are being run. Even in those cases where incumbents have eked out wins, it’s been only by the tiniest of margins: Spain’s Pedro Sánchez recently had to make massive sacrifices to stay in power, while Turkey, Greece, and Nigeria, among others, saw similarly tight wins. (Each of these opposition-won elections, by the way, is leading to a peaceful transfer of power. Far be it from me to be Swarthmore’s Francis Fukuyama, but things may be looking up for liberal democracy.)
Interestingly, the lack of success by incumbent parties has not clearly been the result of swings against left- or right-wing figures: politicians of every ideology have been cut down by the people these last few months. Nor are voters necessarily abandoning two-party systems: while voters swung to third parties in Argentina, Bhutan, Poland, and others, the entrenched two-party opposition was the main winner of dissatisfied voters in countries like Liberia, the Maldives, and Luxembourg.
A look at the last few elections can help us understand why voters are abandoning incumbents in such large numbers. In the second half of this year, we’ve seen just one prime minister, Pedro Sánchez of Spain, hold on to power, while Singapore elected a new president, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, of the same incumbent establishment. Meanwhile, the following countries have elected new leaders: Ecuador, Guatemala, the Maldives, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Liberia, New Zealand, Poland, Argentina, the Netherlands, and Bhutan. That’s a diverse smattering of countries around the world.
Take Ecuador, Guatemala, and Argentina. The election themes between the three differ a little, but all include one consistent theme: a bad economy. All three countries turned to outsiders to fix their problems; how well they will do is yet to be seen. In Bhutan as well, the economy rose to the fore. A runoff election next month between an older opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, and a brand new party, the Bhutan Interdependence Party, will decide the new prime minister. The Bhutan Interdependence Party surprisingly beat out the incumbent for second place in the first round of the elections. Both parties’ platforms are driven by the economy.
Slovakia and Poland saw slightly different themes drive the elections. Despite Western furor over the winner’s anti-Ukrainian views, the economy was also a major driver in the Slovakian campaign. Poland, on the other hand, saw widespread dissatisfaction with an increasingly autocratic ruling party — along with frustrations with inflation at a 25-year high — drive the election campaign.
Liberia, too, saw economic frustrations (along with corruption) drive the incumbent out of power. The Maldives saw the incumbent driven from power by a desire to shift relations away from India and towards China — a nation that has offered billions of dollars to the Maldives.
New Zealand saw mainly economic frustrations drive the incumbent out of power. Luxembourg saw economic and crime frustrations drive the incumbent out of power. The Netherlands saw immigration, the environment, and — you guessed it — economic frustrations drive the incumbent party out of power.
Now, to be fair, the economy is always a part of the equation when it comes to elections. A bad economy equals bad election results. Fundamentally, the economy and crime are real, tangible issues for most people, much more so than more abstract ideas like democracy or civility. Consider what nearly lost the Democrats the 2022 gubernatorial race in New York. Even when the issue is based more on perception than reality, tangible issues lead to frustration. There are, however, other issues, and other issues did play a part in some of the significant defeats over the past year.
But, usually, incumbents win more elections than this. A 70% loss rate – rising to 85% this half of the year – isn’t a good sign, and the fact that the economy keeps coming up as a driving issue in countries as diverse as Argentina, Bhutan, and Luxembourg certainly means something.
The people are restless. Whether the cause is the economy, Western foreign policy, or something else, incumbent leaders need to sleep with one eye open. It’s a bad time to be running for reelection.
*Additional notes: the countries I chose to cover exclude (a) certain small Pacific countries without political parties and (b) countries that do not hold reasonably free/fair/competitive elections. Prime ministers are only considered for countries with parliamentary democracies.
