Last December, I noted in The Phoenix that globally 70% of free and fair elections in 2023 (and 85% in the second half) were won by the opposition, a marked uptick from prior years. Neither left nor right was consistently the winner; people simply wanted change, regardless of its form. This trend was interpreted to indicate general restlessness amongst the populace given the economic downturn.
The trend has continued in 2024, as demonstrated by Sri Lanka’s recent presidential election, amongst others (Belgium, France, Iran, Jordan, the UK, Venezuela, etc.). Sri Lanka has been beset by a major economic crisis for several years now, whereby many citizens have been rendered unable to purchase basic needs, let alone wants. This crisis culminated in 2022 when protestors managed to raid the Presidential Palace and forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.
However, the protestors had no real plan after they achieved their goal, and with longtime presidential aspirant Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe taking the reins, the protests were quickly quashed. Wickremesinghe’s rise to power is notable: just a few years before, he had led the opposition against the Rajapaksa government, but by the time he took power, he had set his differences with the Rajapaksas aside and was able to count on their support to consolidate power.
Wickremesinghe ran for re-election this year and he lost in a landslide, coming in third. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa came in second. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of a little-known left-wing third party, blew out the vote and easily won the race. How did this happen?
Sri Lanka has had a stable two-party system for most of its history, with the center-left Freedom Party (SLFP) and the center-right United National Party (UNP). In 2005, the SLFP managed to elect former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa to be President. Mahinda Rajapaksa then won victory over a long-running rebellion by the country’s Tamil minority, winning him widespread popularity with the country’s Sinhala majority. Mahinda Rajapaksa decided to run for an unprecedented third term in 2015: and this broke the country’s two-party system.
For the 2015 election, the UNP ended up joining with SLFP dissidents to successfully elect SLFP member Maithripala Sirisena as President (instead of giving Mahinda Rajapaksa a third term). As a result, with the SLFP dissolving into chaos, Mahinda Rajapaksa decided to quit and form his own party, the People’s Front (SLPP). Come 2019, Mahinda’s brother Gotabaya ran for President with the SLPP and won by a large margin. Gotabaya quickly appointed Mahinda as Prime Minister and other Rajapaksas filled many other government positions. Notably, the SLPP also amended the Constitution to increase the power of the President.
Simultaneously, the SLFP and the UNP both began to support the Rajapaksas. Opposition politicians had nowhere to go and fled to new parties, chief among them being the new United People’s Power (SJB). And this is the environment that led to the rise of the protestors and the rise of Wickremesinghe: the Rajapaksas mismanaged the economy so badly that they were forced out of the country.
Come 2024 every major party had destroyed their reputation with the people. The SLPP had destroyed the economy and the SLFP and UNP were complicit. Wickremesinghe, being of the UNP, had to go in the eyes of many citizens.
This is why both the first- and second-placed parties this year were traditional third parties. The loser was the SJB (weighed down by its own connections to the establishment); the winner was the People’s Liberation Front (JVP), a former rebel group and left-wing political party. Dissanayake of the JVP campaigned on a platform of combating corruption and reworking a controversial deal Wickremesinghe made with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to rebuild the country’s economy. Enough people liked his platform that he won. And now Anura Kumara Dissanayake is the inaugurated president of Sri Lanka, with a parliamentary election coming up by the end of the year.
What does all of this mean? Firstly, it demonstrates what happens when people are wildly dissatisfied with incumbent leaders in a democracy: they lose. We see that Sri Lanka is just one of many countries choosing to pass the baton to the opposition right now. Secondly, it sheds some light on how two-party systems change and dissolve. Understanding Sri Lanka helps us understand one possible future of the United States.
In short: don’t let nepotistic family dynasties run your country, especially if they have an inclination to rule forever with maximal powers. It is a blessing that Sri Lanka has turned the page on this dark period of their history.
