As the bitter weather persists and snow continues to flutter down on campus, we have somehow entered my favorite season: awards season.
The 2026 film awards season is in full swing as the industry bubbles with excitement to celebrate the cinema of 2025. From smaller award bodies like the New York Film Critics Circle to star-studded events like the BAFTA awards, the season is slowly building up to the culmination of the highest honors: The 98th Academy Awards. 24 categories honoring films released in 2025 will be presented to the talented group of nominees, led by a record-breaking sixteen nominations for Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” thirteen for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” and nine each for Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” and Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.”
Since the 2015 #OscarsSoWhite controversy, the Academy has been expanding its reach to embrace cinema from around the world and recognize artists from underrepresented communities. Nowadays, 24% of Academy members do not reside in the United States, with over 68 countries now represented in the voting body. For only the second time in Oscars history, there is at least one non-English-language film represented in every single category — Wagner Moura became the first Brazilian to be nominated for Best Actor, Ruth E. Carter became the most-nominated Black woman in Academy history with her fifth costume design nomination, and ten of the sixteen nominations for “Sinners” were achieved by Black artists.
It is important to note that awards season is always riddled with massive campaign machines, copious amounts of money dumped into promotions and for-your-consideration ads, and the exploiting of industry connections to better one’s awards prospects. After all, award shows are an industry in and of themselves, and it’s important not to take these ceremonies as the sole assessment of a film’s merit. While the Academy has been making strides to acknowledge the cinema they have historically ignored, the American-centric leanings and money-driven studio campaigning mean it will never adequately capture the full scope of a year’s cinematic achievements. Nevertheless, predicting the awards season is a fun activity for movie junkies like me to indulge in — celebrating cinema is always a win in my book.
As final Oscars voting ends on March 5, here is who will most likely win — and who I believe should win — in the top categories at the 98th Academy Awards.
Best Picture
Will win: “One Battle After Another,” dir. Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: “Train Dreams,” dir. Clint Bentley
If you’ve read my piece on “Train Dreams,” you know how much I adore this film. At risk of repeating myself, “Train Dreams” is an incredible film that manifests the enormity of the human experience with gorgeous cinematography and stellar performances, leaving you with an appreciation for the beauty in the little things. It is a film that touched me deeply and one that will enter my personal canon of forever favorites. That being said, if “One Battle After Another” continues sweeping the awards season as it has at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and Producers Guild Awards (PGA), it’s hard to be mad about it. Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film is one that isn’t afraid to be upfront about its politics against fascism, white supremacy, the abuse of the military, ICE detentions, and the battle against injustice that is passed on and on. The fight for a better world never ends. It’s one battle after another. Jonny Greenwood’s score is immaculate, every performance is pitch-perfect (I might be in love with Chase Infiniti), the car chase scene has some of the most beautiful shots of the year, and even though it clocks in at over two and a half hours, there is not a single dull moment in the film. Adapted from a novel set in the 1980s, this is a timeless film that feels ever so crucial to our current moment, and one that will continue to be prescient for generations to come. ¡Viva la revolución!
Best Director
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Paul Thomas Anderson, or as cinephiles affectionately call PTA, will go down as one of the greatest directors of all time. From timeless classics such as “There Will Be Blood” to my personal favorite “Punch-Drunk Love,” PTA has had a near-flawless track record of creating modern classics. His latest film takes all of the filmmaking prowess he’s developed over the years to tell the most personal story he’s ever put to screen. An adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland,” PTA uses the novel as an outline that he fills with details from his personal life to create the emotional bedrock of the film. From being the father of biracial children to living in an era where the lost fight of his generation must be passed down to the next, this story — which PTA has been wanting to adapt for 20 years — is one in which his entire heart and soul shine through. Anderson also seems to be the clear frontrunner of the race, racking up awards from the DGA, BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice Association. The DGA award specifically has matched the Oscar for Best Director in all but eight instances since the award’s inception in 1948. As a filmmaker, Anderson has been nominated for fourteen Academy Awards without a single win — this ceremony is where that changes for good.
Best Actor
Will win: Timothee Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Should win: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Following Timothee Chalamet’s assertion that he was “in pursuit of greatness” at the 2025 SAG awards, the 30-year-old actor threw himself into his character Marty Mauser throughout the elaborate press tour for Josh Safdie’s 1950s ping-pong film. As the ambitious yet morally reprehensible hustler for whom you can’t help but root, Chalamet delivers an electrifying performance that lights up every scene with rapid-fire dialogue and irresistibly mischievous charm. While Chalamet’s performance is spot on in a film littered with opportunities for him to show off his acting chops, many actors in his category are being overlooked for their more understated performances. In “The Secret Agent,” Wagner Moura plays research scientist Marcelo, who is on the run for reasons unbeknownst to us. There’s only so much that can be said about Moura’s shape-shifting performance without spoiling the film, but in my opinion, he undeniably delivers the best performance in the category. So much is communicated through just his eyes — there’s something so transfixing about them, this intangible quality that captivates you whenever he’s on screen. While Moura’s performance isn’t as “showy” as Chalamet’s, there’s a quiet intensity seething beneath every expression. While this category is stacked with great performances, including Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners,” Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon,” and Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another,” Moura’s quiet intensity and ability to translate emotional candor with little dialogue deserve to be recognized at the highest level.
Best Actress
Will win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Should win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
I would like it to be known that I adore Jessie Buckley. From “I’m Thinking of Ending Things,” to “Wicked Little Letters” (a film that I and probably five other people watched in theaters), I think Buckley is a generational talent who has the ability to seamlessly embody polar opposite characters. She fully commits to every role she takes on, and that is no exception in Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet.” “Hamnet” is a soul-crushing movie that brought me to tears four separate times, many of which were attributed to Buckley’s striking performance. Her microexpressions that unwittingly appear as she tries to keep a strong face in the wake of unspeakable tragedy are a sight to behold, and the raw emotion she can so painfully portray is breathtaking. Her performance is one that will surely be studied in drama schools for generations. It seems that the whole film industry has come to a consensus that Buckley will win the Oscar, what with her garnering over 30 wins amongst critics groups and thus becoming the most awarded performer of the season so far.
While Buckley’s win will be well warranted, I still believe that it is Rose Byrne who deserves the win for her career-defining performance as an ailing mother in Mary Bronstein’s “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Byrne’s performance is frantic, spontaneous, guttural, and magnetic — you can’t take your eyes off of her whenever she’s on screen, which is virtually the entire runtime. This film rests completely on her shoulders and only works because of her committed performance. The exhaustion radiates off her face as she scrambles to do anything she can to stay afloat in the impossible game of motherhood. The camera stays in an extreme closeup for almost the entire film, giving Byrne no leeway to make a false step — and she never does. Moreover, she balances the tone between drama and comedy perfectly, in one moment making you sob and in the very next making you laugh out of discomfort or sheer absurdity. It is a balancing act that is incredibly difficult to pull off, yet Byrne does it with ease. While both Buckley and Byrne are incredible in their own respects, I would personally give Byrne the slight edge in a great film that, in my opinion, was not adequately rewarded this season.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Should win: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Stellan Skarsgård plays an absent father trying to reconnect with his estranged daughters in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” As an actor who started working at age seventeen and has since had eight children, many joke that Skarsgård’s role in the film was a real stretch from reality. However, Skarsgård’s quiet tenderness is palpable. He plays his character in such a grounded way that makes you hate him, feel sympathy for him, feel embarrassed for him, and feel enraged at him, allowing him to go from this loving goof of a dad to the absent father figure his daughters see. His eyes, as the regret seeps through, are heartbreaking: a blank face with a tender gaze as he looks at his daughters and sees the lives he missed out on. It’s a subtle performance that stays with you long after the film ends. It is warm yet also feels at a distance, putting audiences in the shoes of Renate Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas’ characters that feel an intrinsic emotional connection to him, yet cannot pick up the pieces of a relationship that was broken since he slammed the door goodbye.
On the other hand, Sean Penn’s performance as Colonel Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another” is pretty undeniable. It is a fully committed performance of a detestable man, one that makes you cringe, one that makes your skin crawl, one that makes you laugh at his sheer stupidity, and one that makes you want to clock him in the face. His odd walk, his lip spasms, the way he licks his comb before straightening his hair — every choice in creating this one-of-a-kind character was made with intention. Penn has now won both the Actor Award and the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor, which more or less makes him a lock (pun intended) to win the Oscar. Cases where someone wins both BAFTA and SAG and then loses the Oscar are incredibly rare. The last time this happened was in 2002, when Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”) lost at the Oscars to Denzel Washington (“Training Day”). While this would be a well-deserved third Oscar for Penn, I can’t help but feel bittersweet that Skarsgård’s terrific performance will fly under the radar.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Wunmi Mosaku “Sinners”
Should win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
This race has been absolutely bonkers. Amy Madigan has won both the Critics’ Choice and the Actor’s Award for her deliciously evil performance in “Weapons,” Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for her searing role in “One Battle After Another,” and Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA for her quietly scene-stealing performance in “Sinners.” While I am not completely confident in my prediction of Mosaku winning the Oscar, it would be a much-deserved recognition. Mosaku is the moral and emotional force that provides “Sinners” with a much-needed sense of groundedness. In a film driven by violence and vampires, Mosaku provides the story with an emotional center and is able to communicate the inner qualms of a woman, whilst always carrying herself assuredly.
But as great as Mosaku is, the supporting performance I have been screaming about from the rooftops is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in “Sentimental Value.” It’s hard to put into words the impact this performance had on me. As prosaic as it might sound, her performance is so real. There were no times when I felt the artifice of acting — it felt like I was a fly on the wall witnessing the life of a fully formed person. A lot of this can be attributed to how I related to her character personally, but Lilleaas’s balance of playing the emotionally mature sister who mediates the tension between her sibling and father, while also dealing with her own trauma of growing up, is masterfully conveyed. The agony on her face as she tries to stay calm and collected whilst her bubbling resentment for her father comes to the surface is a sight to behold. As PTA puts it, “If you like your acting pitch-perfect, this is the film for you. If you want to see the real best special effect of the year, it’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas’ performance.”
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Should win: Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian, “It Was Just an Accident”
“Sinners” is a one-of-a-kind film. The creative genius it takes to create this genre-bending story that is also topical to the current day is a feat that does not go unnoticed. The Academy’s love for “Sinners” despite historically ignoring genre movies also sets a great precedent for the future of unconventional storytelling at which Coogler is so masterful. That being said, I would like to shout out a film that was woefully snubbed from Best Picture, Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident.” It makes sense that Panahi’s script feels so intense and visceral, as the film is largely based on his own experiences being incarcerated in Iran for protesting the incarceration of other detained filmmakers. Panahi’s dedication to defying the Iranian regime and using art as a vessel for advocacy against oppression needs to be championed. The screenplay is perfect — it is fueled with rage as characters spit out scathing monologues that erupt from the irrepressible anger germinating within them. The dialogue is raw and filled with fury, directly critiquing the corruption the Iranian regime inflicts on those who dare to speak out against it. While Panahi did not get the Best Picture or Best Director nomination I believe he deserved, it would be an inspired choice to see him win this award for his biting screenplay.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson “One Battle After Another”
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson “One Battle After Another”
Most of what I have to say about “One Battle After Another” has already been said, but I am jumping with excitement for PTA to finally win an Oscar for his writing. His writing has always been my favorite part of his films — it is so sharp and so hilarious, able to couple memorable one-liners along with dialogue that reinvigorates parts of you you’ve never quite been able to articulate. The screenplay has so many memorable lines, from Sensei Sergio St. Carlos’ “You know what freedom is? No fear,” to Perfidia’s “Are you happy? Do you have love? What will you do when you get older? Will you try to change the world like I did?” Then, there’s the age-old question that will haunt Bob Ferguson for life: “What time is it?”
Best Casting
Will win: Francine Maisler, Sinners
Should win: Francine Maisler, Sinners
In the newest addition to the Academy’s lineup of categories, “Sinners” seems primed to take home the first-ever award for Best Casting. Casting is often an unrecognized talent that is imperative to the success of any film — films can easily fall apart if their ensembles don’t have the necessary chemistry or if actors are simply unsuited to play the parts they were cast in. Watching “Sinners,” I can’t imagine anyone else playing any role in the film. From groundbreaking discoveries like Miles Caton to seasoned veterans like Delroy Lindo, the casting makes the film truly come alive. Each actor feels born to play their respective roles, a foresight that the great Francine Maisler saw when putting together this stacked cast, many of whom are nominated for individual awards. With the debut of this category, let’s introduce it with a bang and reward “Sinners” for the casting excellence it deserves.
While the Academy has done a great job in recognizing a wide scope of 2025 films, there are always projects that fly under the radar of awards shows. As we prepare to hand out the golden statues on March 15, here are some films with no nominations that deserve to be checked out.
- Lurker, dir. Alex Russell (Available on MUBI)
- Sorry, Baby, dir. Eva Victor (Available on HBO Max)
- No Other Choice, dir. Park Chan-Wook (Available on digital)
- Left-Handed Girl, dir. Shih-Ching Tsou’s (Available on Netflix)
- Jay Kelly, dir. Noah Baumbach (Available on Netflix)
- Friendship, dir. Andrew DeYoung (Available on HBO Max)
- Caught by the Tides, dir. Jia Zhangke (Available on digital)
- On Becoming a Guinea Fowl, dir. Rungano Nyoni (Available on HBO Max)
- Die My Love, dir. Lynne Ramsey (Available on MUBI)
- Hedda, dir. Nia DaCosta (Available on digital)
The 2026 Academy Awards ceremony will take place on March 15 at 7 p.m. in the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles and will be available to stream on ABC and Hulu + Live TV.
