Romania has surprisingly become a major flashpoint in the battle between establishment and insurgent political forces.
For the past 24 years, Romanian politics has been dominated by three major political groups: the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL), and the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL). During this period, every president (and every partisan prime minister) has been from one of these parties. Since 2000, these three parties have collectively dominated the vote in both parliamentary and presidential elections. Until now.
Last week, two alternative candidates came in first and second in the presidential election, advancing to the runoff which will be held next week. One of the candidates represents an insurgent hard-right conservative movement, and the other represents an insurgent centrist anti-corruption movement. Regardless of which one wins, the Romanian status quo will be shattered.
The very first article I ever wrote for The Phoenix was about Germany and the rise of the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. I asserted that the AfD’s meteoric growth was attributable to the grand coalition formed by the major two parties from the left and right. In short, the main left-wing party (the SPD) and the main right-wing party (the CDU) formed a coalition between 2013 and 2021, working together to run the country. This meant that voters naturally sought a political party for their opposition to the government, which opened space for alternatives like the AfD to get a foothold.
Similarly in Romania, since 2021, the main left-wing party (the PSD) and the main right-wing party (a merger of the PNL and PDL) have formed a coalition to govern the country. Regardless of its pro-Western tilt, this coalition has been roundly criticized for creeping authoritarianism and has been described as even worse than Orban’s government in Hungary by “The Economist.” Romania is also regarded as one of the most corrupt countries in the European Union. As such, voters have been dissatisfied with this government. One poll from last month found 80% of Romanians were concerned about an economic crisis and 57% worried about a world war.
Consequently, people did not vote for the established parties. Both the PSD and PNL/PDL candidates fell behind in the presidential race, being replaced by the hard-right independent Călin Georgescu and centrist anti-corruption campaigner Elena Lasconi. Further, the parliamentary elections this past weekend yielded a fragmented legislature as the established parties lost their entrenched majority. The biggest winners of the elections were three hard-right parties.
If the PSD and the PNL/PDL had never made their coalition, perhaps one of them would have won the election. Instead, the fact that they together made up a grand coalition has turned voters off of both entirely, ending the practice of alternation between the PSD and the PNL/PDL and forcing voters to find new alternatives.
The establishment’s response to their candidates being locked out of the presidential runoff has been mixed. The Constitutional Court considered annulling the election results, before unanimously reversing course this week. The head of the nation’s telecommunications regulator called for TikTok to be suspended in the country; Georgescu had primarily campaigned via TikTok. The TikTok CEO has also been called to testify before the European Parliament in response to Georgescu’s first-round success.
Despite consternation from the establishment, however, it remains clear that a majority of the population does not have their back. In both the presidential and parliamentary elections, a majority of voters backed insurgent candidates and parties. What this portends for Romania, and Europe more broadly, is unclear.
Will the anti-corruption candidate prevail, or will the TikTok campaigner make it to the presidency? We will see soon enough.
