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BY TIMOTHY BERNSTEIN

In print | Published March 18, 2010

Tim’s column this week is the second installation of a set of difficult hypothetical choices to keep one of two star players that baseball clubs might make. Tim provides his opinion as to whom the teams should keep if ever presented with such a choice.

Milwaukee Brewers 1B Prince Fielder (25) vs. LF Ryan Braun (26)

2007-2009 Performance Comparison:
Fielder: .288/.393/.514* 130 HR, 298 R, 362 RBI, -16.7 UZR**, 14.6 WAR***
Braun: .308/.363/.574, 103 HR, 296 R, 317 RBI, -17.6 UZR, 12 WAR

Gun to My Head: The defensive numbers for both Fielder and Braun are not good, but consider how much worse Braun’s could have been had he not been moved to left field in 2008 and was instead forced to remain a part of Milwaukee’s abysmal infield. The overall UZR numbers for Braun indicate that he still hasn’t graduated to the level of an elite defender (or even an average one) but has made incredible strides in his two years, especially considering that his previous outfield experience was a couple of games on his high school team. Fielder has also improved his defense, but remains more of a liability than not. Offensively, the numbers are pretty similar across the board, with Braun in the number-three hole hitting for a higher average while the cleanup-hitting Fielder remains Milwaukee’s preeminent power threat. In the end, several smaller, albeit important, factors push the decision in favor of Braun. For one thing, Braun’s athleticism makes him a more attractive option going forward; in general, if you could choose, you wouldn’t want your best player to be a corner infielder (first or third baseman), much less one who tips the scales at 268 pounds.

The speed and arm strength that should eventually make Braun a capable defender will never be parts of Fielder’s game. Bottom line: Fielder can’t match Braun’s versatility, and the offensive edge he holds over him is too slight to make up for that. Factor in that Braun’s at-bat music is Young Jeezy’s “Go Getta” and it’s game, set, and match, Brewers left fielder.

San Francisco Giants SP Tim Lincecum (25) vs. SP Matt Cain (25)*

2007-2009 Performance Comparison: Lincecum: 40-17 W-L, 598.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 676 K, 1.15 WHIP, 19.6 WAR
Cain: 29-38 W-L, 635.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 520 K, 1.27 WHIP, 11.3 WAR

Gun to My Head: If you’re not interested in reading me explain something that seems incredibly obvious, which is why Lincecum would be the pitcher the Giants should keep, that’s fine. I said it upfront so you don’t have to read it. When the two are put side-by-side, there doesn’t appear to be any question that “The Freak,” as they call him, has outperformed Cain in San Francisco. Again, however, there are enough chinks in Lincecum’s armor that make a debate like this worthwhile. For one thing, he has already thrown an enormous number of innings for someone who has pitched three years in the major leagues, and that includes a jump of 80 innings between 2007 and 2008. Obviously, there was no drop-off in 2009, when he won his second consecutive Cy Young, but the suggestion that his fastball velocity is already showing signs of diminishment, as well as the Giants’ perpetual state of fear that the unorthodox delivery that makes Lincecum so effective will ultimately cut his career short, has closed the gap somewhat between the two pitchers. In Gene Wojciechowski’s annual preseason interview with the anonymous “Scout X,” the scout was quoted as saying he would prefer Cain over Lincecum going forward for those exact reasons. “[Lincecum]’s a max-effort guy with a bad delivery, and Cain pitches with such ease,” said the scout, adding that his choice was made with the next six or seven years in mind. Despite Lincecum’s incredible accomplishments in just three years of baseball, the fear that he will burn himself out is a prevailing one.

But what if he doesn’t? In a sense, that’s the question that keeps me from endorsing Cain, who has proven to be a phenomenal pitcher in his own right. I pose that question because if Lincecum, “The Freak,” doesn’t flame out spectacularly, and is handled carefully, and remains free of long-term injuries, then the kind of career he could have is absolutely mind-blowing. I’m not usually a fan of judging a player, especially a contemporary one, on the historic company he keeps, but seven other pitchers have won consecutive Cy Youngs. They are Sandy Koufax, Denny McLain, Jim Palmer, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez. McLain provides a preview of the worst-case scenario for Lincecum, a prodigious talent lost to arm problems and allegations of gambling. The other six, however, represent six of the greatest pitchers ever to play the game, and now Lincecum can say he has done what they did. It’s been only three years, and it would be foolish to make a career prediction based on such a short time, but Lincecum has shown the Giants what he can do before he hits his prime. Judging by the record-setting arbitration settlement they reached, it looks like the Giants want to see what can possibly come next.

And finally…

New York Yankees SS Derek Jeter (35) vs. RP Mariano Rivera (40)

2007-2009 Performance Comparison:
Jeter: .319/.386/.445, 41 HR, 297 R, 208 RBI, -9.2 UZR 14.8 WAR
Rivera: 208.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 223 SO, 113 Saves, 7 Blown Saves, 7.3 WAR

Gun to My Head: To call this apples and oranges wouldn’t be doing it justice. The roles that Jeter and Rivera play on the Yankees, not just as shortstop and closer but also as presences on the team, are day-and-night different. As captain, Jeter sets the tone for the entire team, dictating how they carry themselves both on and off the field. He leaves it to other veterans to take young players under their wings, and that is where Rivera comes in. The uncontested senior of the Yankee pitching staff, young relievers gravitate toward him for attention, protection, and a mature perspective which he has proven only too willing to provide to whoever requests it.

There are stories about how it all came so close to never happening, how Jeter almost got drafted by Cincinnati and how Rivera was nearly traded to Detroit when he was still a minor leaguer. “It’s A Wonderful Life” repurposed for the winningest franchise in sports, forced to wonder what life would have been like if either of them had never been around. Statistics mean nothing beyond the point where it’s clear that both Jeter and Rivera have been among the best of the best in their careers as Yankees, and in reality, that is unlikely to change. But if it ever came to pass, there is only one answer…

On the first day of the 2003 season, Jeter was sliding into third base when he collided with the other team’s catcher, who was backing up an errant throw, and dislocated his shoulder. He missed 36 games, to date the longest he has been away from the Yankees, and came back to a first-place team. Did they miss Jeter? Of course they did, but ultimately his role at the top of the lineup and in the field (he has, if we’re being absolutely truthful, never been a great defensive player) could be replicated if need be.

I have seen Mariano Rivera go down several times for short periods with injuries, and the Yankees have never successfully adjusted to make up for it. Gone is the assurance 98 times out of 100 that a lead in the eighth inning ensures a victory. Gone is the absolute security that comes with watching a pitcher thrive into his late 30s using only what his body has supplied him with. Gone is the greatest closer, past and present, regular season and playoff, of all time. It’s impossible to know how much longer Rivera, who turned 40 three weeks after he threw the final out of the World Series, can pitch at this level. Unlike Jeter, however, Rivera has moved beyond any logical points of comparison. There are no closers in their 40s who have ever pitched like this. He and the Yankees are now in uncharted waters and when he takes the mound for the first time every spring, an entire organization watches, hearts in mouths, to see whether this will finally be The Year where it is time to make plans for the future. At some point, that year will probably have to come, but it hasn’t yet and, as long as that cutter continues to turn bats into firewood, there’s no reason to think it ever will.

*A typical “batting line,” where the first number is batting average, the second on-base percentage, and the third slugging percentage

• UZR=Ultimate Zone Rating, a defensive statistic that determines how many more runs a player on defense has prevented than the average player at that position.
  ***WAR=Wins Above Replacement, a statistic that attempts to calculate a player’s total value to his team in terms of how many wins he personally adds to their total.

Timothy is a first-year. You can reach him at tbernst1@swarthmore.edu.

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