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BY MARK CHIN

In print | Published January 28, 2010

Part 1: Predictions for the New Year in Sports

I daresay I’ve no right making predictions after bricking my last two concerning Cliff Lee and the Miami Dolphins. I still insist that they weren’t complete failures. The Phillies’ acquisition of Lee instead of Roy Halladay (2.79 ERA, sub-1 WHIP on 3 days rest) did inadvertently cause them to lose the World Series, and Miami wasn’t eliminated from NFL playoff contention until the final weekend of the season.
Keep that in mind as you read my new set of predictions for sports this year if you felt I’ve become a disreputable source. I may be completely wrong on some of these, but I’m hoping that my credibility will survive; perhaps people will be more likely to remember my correct predictions (if any) rather than my incorrect ones.

One prediction your roommate could make:
Roy Halladay wins the National League Cy Young

I really do hope this prediction comes true. If Halladay wins this year’s NL Cy Young Award (given to the best pitcher in the NL in baseball), I formally get to declare to all the Phillies fans that read my column (all one of them, considering e-mails I’ve received) something along the lines of, “I TOLD YOU SO.” Ignoring personal, self-interested motives, however, this prediction still makes sense.
Over the past four years, Halladay has gone 5-2 against the National League in Interleague Play with a 2.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The ‘Doc’ pitched about six innings in each of his games (this number would be higher had he not been a reliever for a game), striking out 55 batters while walking only 14.
There’s no reason to think that Halladay won’t be able to keep this dominance up pitching for the Phillies against other NL teams. The pitching god that is the ‘Doc’ does not seem to be affected by age the way mere mortals are (he struck out a career high 208 batters just last season). Furthermore, former AL pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee went a combined 18-6 after switching to the NL. Since Halladay is a better pitcher than both, 2010 looks to be a fun-filled Cy Young season for him. He even gets to show off his batting skills. Did you know he’s the only Blue Jays pitcher to earn two base hits in a regular season game?

One prediction that my father did make:
The New York Yankees make it to the World Series… Again

I figured I’d give my old man a cameo in my column, as he is partially responsible for igniting my passion for sports as a kid. We had always watched Yankees games together, and he was the bank behind my forays into coach-pitched Little League (my crowning moment, an in-the-park home run) and high school lacrosse. He couldn’t make all the games I played in, but he always had a camera in hand and a pack of Big League Chew when he could.

My father and I have different approaches to sports, however. He is a casual fan, and roots for the New York teams when it suits him (read: when they’re winning). Saying that I love sports is something of an understatement, on the other hand. So I wasn’t surprised when my father didn’t give me a reason for why he thought the Yankees were making it to the World Series. He’s always helped start things for me. I’ve always had to fill in the blanks for myself.

The Yankees don’t lose much from last year’s championship team coming into the new season; in fact, they return an even stronger lineup and rotation, much to the chagrin of most baseball fans. They traded for a quality pitcher (Javier Vazquez, a strikeout stud who placed fourth in NL Cy Young voting last year) without losing any integral pieces of their championship team. To free agency they lost Hideki Matsui and (potentially) Johnny Damon, two clutch hitters for sure, but whose current overall athletic abilities I venture I could match.
The Yankees have switched them for two more than adequate replacements. Nick Johnson really likes getting injured and getting on base (he was second in on-base percentage to a guy named Albert Pujols in 2009) and Curtis Granderson doesn’t really enjoy partaking in either of those things (though he hit a career high 30 home runs in 2009).
The Red Sox, in comparison, acquired big bad ace John Lackey. JLAX, however, has had middling results against the Yankees. Over the past four years, he’s gone 2-2 against the Yanks with a respectable 3.63 ERA, but a pedestrian WHIP of 1.606. The Yanks acquisitions seem to put them in the fast lane to the World Series, especially considering how last year’s playoff teams are worse off after their losses and moves made in this offseason.

One prediction made for completely arbitrary reasons:
Germany wins the 2010 FIFA World Cup

I love the World Cup because people unite to watch it (even those who don’t like sports), announcers compete to see who can scream “GOALLLL” the longest and most obnoxiously, and most importantly, I can watch it without commercials (the soccer is okay I guess).
It’s obvious why I love the World Cup; what’s not as obvious is why I think Germany will win (to my readers), why Avatar won best motion pictures at the Golden Globes (to my roommates), and why Dark Matter is important (to astronomists).

I know Germany faces relatively tough group play. I know based on purely statistical figures (1 team of 32 wins the tournament), Germany has a 3.12% chance of winning everything. The beautiful thing about soccer and most sports, though, is that their outcomes are rarely decided by just statistical data (I guess I just kinda contradicted my last two predictions). So do away with the stats for this prediction. Why Germany? Germany was the team I rooted for at the most recent World Cup and European Championships (they almost won both). They’ve got some players with some really cool names. And Miroslav Klose has got a pretty slick front flip. Yep. Those reasons seem good enough for me.

One surprising prediction because it involves the Detroit Lions in a positive manner:
Matthew Stafford will come of age

Being a sports fan is never easy. I almost fainted as the Vikings methodically moved into field-range this past weekend, and prepared to kick the game winning field goal (as a Packers and Saints fan, curse you Brett Favre!). But then Favre threw that interception (as a Packers and Saints fan, thank you Brett Favre!), and the rest is history. The turnover reminded me of how momentum and success changes quickly in the NFL. For example, consider how the Atlanta Falcon lost both its starting quarterback (Michael Vick) and head coach (Bobby Petrino) and finished last place in its division in 2007, but then advanced to the playoffs in 2008 (behind rookie Matt Ryan).
I believe Detroit is primed to turn it around. Though I have insulted the Lion’s futility in previous columns, I do want them to improve. If it’s tough for me to be a sports fan, it’s got to be even tougher for a Lions fan. But there’s hope, guys. His name is Matthew Stafford.
It’s a little overdramatic and maybe premature, but I believe Stafford’s got what it takes to be a great quarterback in the league. I believe Stafford had the best year of all the rookie QBs drafted in the first round (forget that Sanchez brought the Jets deep into the playoffs—I could have handed the ball off to Greene every play too). He threw a comparable number of interceptions (he only started 10 games), but he was also asked to throw a lot more than either player (as necessitated by Detroit’s tendency to be playing from behind). Furthermore, unlike Sanchez, Stafford stepped onto a team without a strong running game to ease the transition into professional football, and had a leaky offensive line. In fact, Stafford’s low tendency to fumble (four fumbles this season) despite a weak line is one of his most impressive stats.

A young group of talented offensive players (halfback Kevin Smith, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, and wideout MEGATRON) will give Stafford the dangerous weapons he needs to score points. Finally, Stafford has shown flashes of a quality that few QBs in the league own: the ability to will a team to victory. Fighting through the pain of a dislocated shoulder, Stafford threw the game-winning, come-from-behind touchdown (in a 5 TD effort) to defeat the Browns this season. It appears that Lions fans will have something to look for (after quite some time) with the New Year.

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