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BY MARK CHIN

In print | Published October 22, 2009

Though we’re less than halfway through the football season, I say that the NFL Miami Dolphins are going to the playoffs, and that Ronnie Brown will become an NFL MVP candidate.

Warning: this irrational prediction may be a result of a fascination with gimmicky offenses, inexperienced quarterbacks and outside linebackers who dabble into ballroom dancing.

Reasons to Believe (or Doubt) the Dolphins
One bleak Monday night in 2007, I found myself watching the Dolphins and Steelers struggle on a muddy Heinz Field in the most uninspiring Monday Night Football game ever played (final score: 3-0 Steelers). That season was magical for the Dolphins. Magical is the only appropriate way of describing the team who was a Cleo Lemon (Cleo who?) overtime touchdown to Greg Camarillo (?!) away from becoming the first NFL team to go 0-16 in the regular season (hello, Detroit Lions!).

Two years later, the Dolphins are trying to recreate a different kind of magic – the kind that helped them become the 2008 AFC East champions with an unexpected 11-5 record. I should have every reason to believe that they won’t be able to recreate it.

The Dolphins have a win percentage below .500 and are one and a half games out of first place in the AFC East. Their divisional opponents have talented squads (Patriots quarterback Tom Brady or the Jets’ Rex Ryan defense, anyone?), which means they have a small margin for error. They face the strongest “strength of schedule” in the NFL this year (their 2009 opponents own a league leading 2008 aggregate win percentage of .594, and 6 of those teams reached the playoffs). Their starting quarterback who began the season, Chad Pennington (reigning Comeback Player of the Year who also ranked second in quarterback rating), is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.
Their wide receivers have never caught more than 800 yards in a single season. Their current sack leader, Jason Taylor, is 35, and wasn’t even able to win Dancing with the Stars.

I have every reason to give up on the Miami Dolphins, but after watching them dismantle the New York Jets in week five, I won’t.

Do I have any rational reasons to have such blind faith in the Dolphins? First off, after the five weeks of football, the team has the same exact record this season as they did last season. That year ended with the team winning the division (Sports Illustrated columnist Don Banks noted that half of the teams that ended up in the 2008 playoffs owned win percentages of .500 or lower after five weeks). This year’s Dolphins (who currently boast a perfect divisional record) are actually closer to catching the AFC East’s leading team.

Furthermore, the strength of their opponents is overstated. Tom Brady is showing signs of mortality this season (e.g. he won’t throw 50 TDs this season), and the Jets’ defense was ripped by the ‘Fins in one of the more entertaining Monday Night Football matches that I have watched. The aggregate 2009 record of their remaining opponents (as of week 5)? A mediocre 22-31.

The transition from Chad (Pennington, 80 NFL starts) to Chad (Henne, 2 NFL starts) is going more smoothly than most expected. Many sports writers have actually speculated that opponents must respect their vertical passing game more because of Henne’s stronger arm. But what about the lack of playmakers at wide receiver and on defense? And isn’t the league adapting to defend their wildcat offense? Anyone who watched the Dolphins play the Jets Monday night had to be impressed by the success of the wildcat against a touted defense. The Dolphins will constantly be surprising opposing defenses with new wrinkles to the wildcat, compensating for whatever existing weaknesses on defense and at wide receiver. At the very least, which fan isn’t entertained by watching a running back throw a football or a wide receiver run a reverse?

Dolphins MVP Talk
There are plenty of players on the team’s offense that have proved themselves after dealing with adversity, and for this reason alone, the Miami Dolphins are a feel-good story. Ricky Williams managed to overcome substance abuse to become an integral cog in the wildcat offense.
Chad Pennington lost his job as starting quarterback of the New York Jets last year, only to find himself leading the Dolphins into the playoffs by defeating his former team. But no one has overcome his problems and become as integral a part of the Miami offense and identity as Ronnie Brown.

After two injury-riddled seasons, Brown was able to help the team reach the playoffs last year as the main piece in the wildcat offense. This year, with an inexperienced quarterback behind center because of Pennington’s injury, Brown’s job handling the offense has become even more significant (note: Brown accounts for about half of the Dolphin’s touchdowns and touches the ball on most of their offensive snaps).

He is a huge reason for the team’s success, yet not many people consider him to be an MVP candidate. Many believe quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to be the top candidates for the award. ESPN’s Mike Sando additionally ranks Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson as the top running back candidates. Yet after the first five weeks of football, Brown had a similar number of scrimmage yards and touchdowns as Benson and Peterson, yet he isn’t even mentioned in Sando’s top 10!

Brown’s role in the offense is also comparable to that of a quarterback. When he runs the wildcat, Brown makes the reads to decide whether he should hand off the football or run it up the middle or around the edges. He also makes passing decisions on option plays and blocks for wide receivers on reverses. Just like how defenses adjust their style of play to match Peyton Manning’s prowess as a passer, defenses adjust their style of play to match Brown’s management of the wildcat. So why isn’t Brown comparable to the top candidates for the MVP award?

Despite the lack of attention the Miami Dolphins and Ronnie Brown are garnering this year from the general public, they haven’t failed to gain my attention. Sports fans all have different reasons for liking certain sport teams or players, though some reasons are more rational than others. Is it illogical for me to hope that the Dolphins will make it into the playoffs or that Brown will become an MVP candidate? Maybe. But making irrational predictions for your favorite team and hoping for a little magic is what being a sports fan is all about.

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