---

BY MARK CHIN

In print | Published October 1, 2009

Sorry Philadelphia sports fans; the defending Major League Baseball champions, your Philadelphia Phillies, will not win the World Series this year (the title will belong to my darling Yankees, regardless of whom they play). Heck, they might not even get out of the NL Divisional Series. You can quote me on that, and you can tell all your friends and relatives that I was the first one to say it.
It’s not time to panic yet, though, Phillies Phanatics. I’m not suggesting that you’ll have to wait another 28 years for a title.

I’m just saying that it might take a few years (I know it hurts to hear that. It hurt me too when the Yanks missed the postseason for the first time in … was it 14 seasons?).

But at least there’s a culprit!

There’s a source behind the impending failure, and I know how you Philadelphia sports fans like to pin these sorts of sports failures on a specific reason or scapegoat.

You can blame this season’s demise on the Phillies’ decision to trade for Cliff Lee and their failure to acquire Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays at this year’s trade deadline.

Once you break down the facts, the arguments that support the trade for Lee start to collapse (almost as quickly as the New York Mets do, weeks before the postseason).

Counterargument One:
Cliff Lee is just as good as Roy Halladay.

This isn’t entirely true.

As soon as Lee was acquired from the Indians at the end of July, people began to praise the Phillies for the trade and for their bargaining prowess.

Lee was acquired from a group of four minor leaguers, which did not include any of the highly rated prospects that Toronto had demanded for Halladay.

Lee started on a tear, winning his first five games (for all you stat lovers, he boasted a sub-one ERA, a sub-one WHIP, a 13-2 strikeout-walk ratio and tossed two of those games from start to finish).

This only reinforced the belief that the Phillies had made the right decision. Over the same period of time, Halladay lost three of five (with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and failing to break six IPs — twice).

All seemed right in the Philadelphia sports world: Lee was a godsend for solidifying an inconsistent rotation, Halladay was in the denouement of his career, and the Phillies were headed to the World Series.

But I didn’t care for any of that.

Sports Illustrated columnist Jon Heyman characterizes the National League as a “minor league” compared to the American League, and I agree. More importantly, I feel this is an important factor in comparing Halladay and Lee.

Do I have any doubt that if Halladay had been pitching against the offensively anemic San Francisco Giants in his first game for the Phillies, he would have flirted with pitching a no-hitter?

Do I doubt that Halladay could have pitched double-digit strikeouts against the injury-ridden Mets?

No.

What I’m more interested in is how each pitcher fares against his American League opponents, because they’re not playing an NL club for the World Series in October — they’ll be playing an AL team.

And to be completely honest, Lee’s stats aren’t looking too good compared to Halladay’s stats, Phillies fans.

From 2005-2008, Lee had won 12 and lost 12 in 29 starts against the four AL teams currently seeded for the playoffs (the Tigers, the Yankees, the Red Sox and the Angels).

In these starts, Lee boasted an earned run average above four and a WHIP of 1.40. Halladay, on the other hand, had won 19 and lost eight in 39 starts, sporting an ERA a whole point lower than Lee’s, with a WHIP bordering 1.10.

As a Yankees fan, seeing Halladay step on the mound is downright infuriating. The ‘Doc’ has an 8-1 record against the Yankees over this period of four years.

My only hope is that the Yankees can either use their massive funds to acquire him once he hits free agency, or nail him in the leg with a line drive to knock him out early during a start (though I’d settle with knocking Jon Lester of the BoSox out, too).

Don’t suppose the Phillies could have used that kind of pitcher in the World Series, eh?

Counterargument Two:
The other Phillies players are good enough that Lee doesn’t need to be as good as Roy Halladay for them to win the World Series.

Maybe.

Lee’s stats against the top teams of the AL aren’t necessarily bad.

They’re probably better than most pitchers’, and they’re just worse than Halladay’s (I can’t imagine any other pitcher would be able to pull out about a .900 win-percentage against the Yanks over the same period of time).

And the Phillies’ offense is quite solid; they’re currently ranked first in the NL (fourth in the MLB) in runs scored per game. And they’ve got power too; this year’s Phillies are the 12th team to have four players hit for 30 home runs.

That’s impressive, but I’m not sure it’s good enough to beat some of the AL teams or NL teams they’ll be facing — especially considering the rotations they’ll be facing in the playoffs.

Lee has been the Phillies’ most dominant and most consistent pitcher since his arrival to Citizens Bank Park, and I think he has earned the right to start the first game of a postseason series.

But what do the Phillies do when they face a St. Louis Cardinals rotation that features ace pitcher Chris Carpenter (a former Cy Young Award-winner who is currently in the running for a second award)?

You’d better hope not only that Cliff Lee pitches a near perfect game (against a lineup featuring two of the best hitters in the game, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols), but that the Phillies’ batters are able to use their power to put up points on the board. Though I think the fact that Carpenter has only allowed seven home runs all year may factor into the outcome.

The possibility that the Phillies might lose home field advantage to the Cardinals may also factor into the outcome, as Phillies’ batters will find themselves in pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium when facing Carpenter (Busch Stadium is ranked 25 spots below Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park in terms of advantageousness for batters).

And what if Lee loses? It does happen, Phillies fans, as seen in some of his scary outings as of late.

Hamels, the second pitcher in the rotation, hasn’t pitched as dominantly as he did last season, and it’s not as if the Cardinal’s second pitcher, Adam Wainwright, is a pushover (he currently has a league-tying 19 wins and is also in contention for the NL Cy Young).

As columnist Stark Jayson points out in the Sept. 24 issue of ESPN The Magazine, the two starting pitchers at the front of the rotation for the Cardinals have a combined postseason ERA of 2.14. Lee, on the other hand, has had no postseason experience.

And which starting pitchers do you trust after Lee and Hamels? Joe Blanton? An aging Pedro Martinez, or the inexperienced J.A. Happ?

And who’s going to finish your games, now that Brad Lidge, scorer of the highest ERA of any closer in history with more than 20 saves, has pitched his way into history?

There are just too many questions with Phillies pitching, which doesn’t allow much room for error. Think Cliff Lee won’t feel the pressure come game one?

Counterargument Three:
The stipulations of trading for Lee were more favorable for the Phillies.

True statement, though slightly skewed.

The Phillies managed to get the reigning AL Cy Young Award-winner without sacrificing their top pitching prospects in the minors.

But what are the chances that any of those prospects pan out to become as good as Halladay?
There are thousands of pitching prospects in the Major League farm systems, and very rarely do they become the pitchers they are predicted to become.

Why not take the bigger risk and trade for Halladay, if it means domination (and perhaps a few more championships) for the few years to come?

You can always reload on prospects that have potential; you can’t always acquire one of the best pitchers to ever start a game.

Is it even a risk? I think it’s a risk to rely on Cliff Lee to be the ace in your rotation. He’s able to produce some brilliant starts, but there are those games when you really question his consistency.
And consistency is important. One friend of mine comments on how much of a crapshoot winning in the postseason is, but it’s not entirely random.

Batters with a .333 batting average obviously don’t go one-for-three in every game. But the more consistent players are, the less influence chance has on the outcome of a game.

Roy Halladay has the ability to give the Phillies the kind of consistency that would provide them with the greatest chance to win the World Series this year.

From 2002-2008, Halladay started 50 more games, pitched 506 more innings and won 50 more games than Lee did (he’s only lost 10 more). And he’s only a year older.

If I’d had any influence in the Phillies organization, there would have been no question as to whom I would’ve traded for this July.

---

« RETURN TO SPORTS

« PREV ARTICLE | NEXT ARTICLE »